The US presidential race: What it means for Australia's economy

Both candidates' policies could significantly impact trade, currency markets, and overall economic relations between our nations.

A second Trump presidency could bring several challenges:

1. A weak US dollar: Trump's goal of weakening the US dollar would have mixed effects. US products would be cheaper for us to buy and the US would become a far more attractive destination for Australian tourists. However, it would make Australian exports more expensive in the US, and potentially reduce demand for them. In addition, his methods to achieve a weaker dollar remain unclear and if, for example, he has to persuade the US Federal Reserve to print more money, would likely disrupt global currency markets.

2. Trade troubles for Australia: Trump's "America First" approach could make it harder for Australian businesses to access US markets. Our farmers, manufacturers, and service providers might find themselves facing tougher barriers.

3. Inflation concerns: Trump's tendency towards lower taxes and pressure for lower interest rates could reignite global inflation. This might force the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates.

4. China relations: An escalation in US-China tensions could put Australia in a difficult position, potentially disrupting trade with our largest partner.

A Harris presidency is likely to continue many of Biden's policies but with a more progressive bent.

1. Trade stability: Harris would probably maintain a more predictable trade policy, benefiting Australian exporters through greater certainty.

2. Green light for green energy: Her emphasis on clean energy could impact demand for Australian fossil fuel exports, but might create opportunities in renewable energy sectors and increase demand for green energy minerals.

3. Australia as a tax haven?: Harris's support for higher US corporate tax rates could make Australia more attractive for international businesses.

4. Boost for Australian healthcare products: While primarily a domestic US issue, Harris' push for universal healthcare could indirectly benefit Australian pharmaceutical and medical technology companies operating in the US market.